The Federal Reserve has issued a working paper on the effects of the current tariff environment, including US tariffs and retaliatory tariffs on the US manufacturing sector. They estimate the impact of tariffs on manufacturing employment, output, and producer prices. They find that US industries “more exposed to tariff increases experience relative reductions in employment as a positive effect from import protection is offset by larger negative effects from rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs. ”

You can find the full report on the AWPA website here.